keralamonitor.com February 4, 2003

IRAQ: Consensus Reportedly Emerging On Extending Inspections;

A consensus is emerging to allow U.N. weapons inspections in Iraq to continue until as late as the middle of next month before the U.N. Security Council decides whether to authorize military action, according to U.N. diplomats cited today by USA Today.Under a possible timetable cited by the newspaper, International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei and U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission Executive Chairman Hans Blix would report to the council late this month after they deliver a report already scheduled for Feb. 14.

Security Council members remain divided over the use of force against Iraq, but 10 Eastern European countries are expected to issue a statement this week in support of U.S. policy. The countries reportedly include new NATO members Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia, as well as prospective members Albania, Croatia and Macedonia.

A declaration of support for the U.S. position was signed Thursday by the leaders of seven other European countries (Bill Nichols, USA Today, Feb. 4). British Prime Minister Tony Blair, one of the signatories, failed today to convince French President Jacques Chirac to support a new Security Council resolution authorizing military force. The two met at the French resort of Le Touquet.

"There is still much to be done in the way of disarmament by peaceful means," said Chirac (Angela Doland, Associated Press/Yahoo! News, Feb. 4).

Greek Foreign Minister George Papandreou, who is serving as the European Union's peace envoy, said yesterday that the EU is considering holding an emergency summit on Iraq in the middle of this month (Nichols, USA Today).

Powell Report To Include Intercepts

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell's report tomorrow to the Security Council will include intercepts of Iraqi officials' telephone calls and photographs of suspected mobile bioweapons laboratories as evidence that Iraq is defying U.N. inspectors, according to U.S. government sources cited today in the Los Angeles Times.

The telephone intercepts, considered one of the most sensitive forms of U.S. intelligence, are said to include Iraqis' boasts of success in hiding weapons material from the inspectors. Powell will also reportedly present satellite photographs of mobile laboratories dubbed "Winnebagos of Death" by U.S. intelligence in reference to the popular recreational campers produced by Winnebago Industries.

"We've got a strong case. We'll convince a lot of folks and move many off the fence. The lay of the land will look very different after Powell has made his presentation," one official said. CIA Director George Tenet is expected to accompany Powell to the United Nations. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Richard Lugar and the committee's ranking Democrat, Joseph Biden, have also been invited (Robin Wright, Los Angeles Times, Feb. 4).

Human Rights Watch yesterday urged Powell to respond to allegations that some of the evidence against Iraq was obtained through the use of torture. In a letter to Powell, the group called for an official U.S. statement rejecting torture as a means of gathering intelligence.

Human Rights Watch Executive Director Kenneth Roth said U.S. President George W. Bush has "said the Iraqi government is 'evil' because it uses torture. ... But torture is evil no matter who is using it. Secretary Powell should not lose this chance to explicitly renounce the use of torture by the U.S. government and its allies" (Human Rights Watch release, Feb. 3).

A British government report released yesterday indicates security agents have bugged all rooms and telephones used by the inspectors. "All their meetings are monitored, their relationships observed, their conversations listened to," according to the report, which also indicates inspectors are outnumbered 20,000-to-108 by Iraqi intelligence officers. The report also backs U.S. claims that Iraq has hidden documents related to weapons production in hospitals, mosques and homes (Associated Press/Yahoo! News, Feb. 4).

Kurds Protest Surprise Inspection

Kurdish leaders in northern Iraq on Sunday protested a surprise visit by U.N. weapons inspectors who they said came without notice and without permission. UNMOVIC spokesman Ewan Buchanan told Public Radio International The World yesterday that inspectors have carried out searches in Kurdish areas before and that some Kurdish officials have said they would cooperate with the inspectors (Note: You may have to download free software to access this audio link).

"We are trying to map out the capabilities of the entirety of Iraq. ... We're just exercising the authority and the rights given to us by the council to go any time, any place and to increase our understanding of the capabilities throughout Iraq," Buchanan said. "For inspections to be effective and credible, they have to be 'no-notice,' that is, so that the people being inspected have no advance warning, and only by having no-notice inspections can you draw effective conclusions from an inspection."

"One of the issues that came to a head yesterday was the insistence of the minders, as we call them, the escorts provided by the Iraqi government. It was the insistence that they also join us on this inspection, and I think the Kurdish authorities took exception to representatives of the central government in Iraq coming and turning up with the inspectors, and to be frank with you, this is something that did not happen in the previous days" of the now-defunct U.N. Special Commission, he said (Lisa Mullins, PRI The World, Feb. 3).

War Would Hurt Africa, Mbeki Says

South African President Thabo Mbeki said Sunday that the effects of a war in Iraq on the oil market could seriously damage African economic progress.

"If you had a war, oil prices would shoot up to the extent that we would have to say goodbye to African development," Mbeki said after meeting with Blair. Mbeki added that a surge in oil prices during the early 1970s led to debt problems still suffered by many African nations.

"It is possible to resolve this matter without going to war," he said. "We have been talking to the Iraqi government. What they have been saying to us is that they are very keen and very willing to cooperate fully with the inspectors" (Matshelane Mamabolo, Johannesburg Independent Online, Feb. 3).

Chalabi Could Lead Postwar Iraq

The head of the Iraqi National Congress, an exile opposition group, has said the United States is backing him as the transitional leader of a postwar Iraq, according to a former Iraqi diplomat cited in today's Sydney Morning Herald.

Ahmed Chalabi said the Bush administration has approved him to lead the country immediately after President Saddam Hussein is deposed, according to the former diplomat, Mohamed al-Jabiri, who lives in Sydney. "He told me that he would take over. He has the blessing of the White House and the State Department," al-Jabiri said of Chalabi.

Chalabi reportedly moved to Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq last week. Iraqi opposition forces are expected to convene a summit there Feb. 15 (Tom Allard, Sydney Morning Herald, Feb. 4).

Although the U.S. State Department budgeted $25 million to fund Iraqi opposition groups during the current fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30, next year's budget contains no funding for the opposition. The Boston Globe reports that the decision not to request money for the groups could indicate the Bush administration feels the future of Iraq is too uncertain (John Donnelly, Boston Globe, Feb. 4).