Flights to Gulf stations to be suspended if Iraq war begins

keralamonitor.com March 18, 2003

Flights to Gulf stations to be suspended if Iraq war begins

New Delhi,Tuesday, March 18, 2003: Government has decided to suspend Air India and Indian Airlines flights to Bahrain, Dammam and Kuwait as soon as the war breaks out in Iraq, which would lead the two carriers to suffer an aggregate loss of about Rs 1.4 billion per month. Stating this, Civil Aviation Minister Shahnawaz Hussain told reporters today that there was also a possibility of raising the fares of the two carriers by about ten per cent due to the hike in prices of aviation turbine fuel (ATF) by about 44 per cent since December last. Stating that the two carriers would suffer from a "two- pronged attack" if the war breaks out, he said while the ATF prices would rise substantially, AI and IA would have to make a detour of over 90 minutes to circumvent the war zone. While AI was estimated to suffer a loss of about Rs 700 million, IA's loss would be about Rs 400 million.

"As it is, we are suffering a loss of Rs 400 million a year due to restrictions on flying over Pakistani airspace, while the flying time has increased due to this by at least one hour," Hussain said.On top of it, the Travel Industry has estimated that about 30 per cent of tourists coming into India would cancel their visits, he said, adding that flights to Europe and the US would be the most affected.

Terrorist Threats to Western Targets in Bahrain.

In view of the risk of hostilities with Iraq, there is an increase in the threat to British nationals in neighbouring countries. The threat to British individuals and organisations from terrorism is now high. It will rise further in the event of hostilities with Iraq. Terrorist attacks in the region could involve the use of chemical and biological materials. There is also a risk of an attack against Bahrain from Iraq in the event of hostilities. This might involve chemical and biological weapons. "We therefore advise against non-essential travel including holiday travel to Bahrain (but excluding airline passengers in transit, provided they do not break their journey). If you are already in Bahrain we advise you to consider leaving unless your presence is essential. As part of such consideration, you should review carefully your own security circumstances. If you do decide to stay, you should maintain a high level of vigilance and exercise good security practices.," the UK Foregn and Commonwealth Office said. "We have ordered the departure of the dependants of our Embassy staff in Bahrain, and are reducing the Embassy to core staffing level. Once we do so, our ability to offer normal consular services will be very restricted. Developments on Iraq and any further increase in regional tension could affect our travel advice. You should check it daily and follow developments closely.," it said.

SAFETY AND SECURITY

Terrorism

In view of the risk of hostilities with Iraq, there is an increase in the threat to British nationals in neighbouring countries. Although no incidents have occurred which directly affected British nationals, we believe that Bahrain, in common with all the Gulf region, is a place where the threat to British individuals and organisations from terrorism is now high. It will rise further in the event of hostilities with Iraq. Terrorist attacks in the region could involve the use of chemical and biological materials.

We therefore advise against non-essential travel including holiday travel to Bahrain (but excluding airline passengers in transit, provided they do not break their journey). If you are already in Bahrain, we advise you to consider leaving unless your presence is essential. As part of such consideration, you should review carefully your own security circumstances. If you do decide to stay you should maintain a high level of vigilance, particularly in public places frequented by foreigners such as hotels, restaurants and shopping malls, and exercise good security practices.

We have ordered the departure of the dependants of our Embassy staff in Bahrain, and are reducing the Embassy to core staffing level. Once we do so, our ability to offer normal consular services will be very restricted. Developments on Iraq and any further increase in regional tension could affect our travel advice. You should check it daily and follow developments closely.

Domestic Political Situation

Travellers to the region should be aware of the impact that violence between the Israelis and Palestinians has had in the region and the risk of public disturbance in response. Recent developments in Iraq will also have had an impact on local public opinion in the whole of the region and this might be expressed by some people. You should follow news reports and be alert to regional developments, which might trigger public disturbances. You should take sensible precautions for your personal safety and avoid political gatherings and demonstrations. Any increase in regional tension might affect travel advice.

Crime and Local Travel

Crime rates in Bahrain are generally low. But you should avoid village areas and poorer districts, especially after dark Driving is permitted on a valid UK licence for three months, and indefinitely on an international driver's licence.

LOCAL LAWS AND CUSTOMS

Bahrain is a liberal state, but many Bahrainis are conservative and find scanty clothing or immoderate behaviour in public offensive. It is best to dress conservatively except within the confines of hotels or clubs, at least until you know your way around. Religious and social sensitivities should be observed and respected, especially during the religious festivals of the Shia community when black flags and banners may be in evidence.

You should not bring videocassettes, as these may be withheld on arrival at the airport. Be aware of significant Muslim holidays, and note that Bahrainis observe a number of religious anniversaries that may not be celebrated in neighbouring Gulf countries. It is now against the Law for any Muslim to purchase alcohol from retail outlets.

The holy month of Ramadan will start in early November 2003. During this time, you should observe the Muslim tradition of not eating, drinking or smoking in public from sunrise to sunset each day.

ENTRY REQUIREMENTS

The Bahrain Embassy in London, 30 Belgrave Square, SW1X 8QB, Tel: 020 7201 9170, issues six-month visit visas for approximately 20 pounds sterling. Three-month visas are granted on arrival for the equivalent of around 10 pounds sterling. Do not overstay the period of time allowed on your visa. Penalties and extension are surprisingly expensive. Your passport should have at least six months validity when you travel.

HEALTH

Make sure you are fully covered for medical treatment, hospitalisation and medical evacuation to the UK, which can be very expensive. Emergency medical treatment is not free.

GENERAL

British nationals in Bahrain are strongly advised to register with the British Embassy and to follow local advice issued by the Embassy and its wardens. British Embassy, 21 Government Avenue, Manama (+973 574 100). Always carry identification. You might be asked to produce it at any time.

Iraq war to have impact on Indian economy: Industry

New Delhi,Tuesday, March 18, 2003: Indian Industry today expressed apprehensions that a military action by the US in Iraq would have a cascading effect on the economy which would suffer high oil prices, balooning inflation and a lower industrial growth. Apex Chambers of industry and trade, however, felt that it would not be a prolonged war. FICCI President A C Muthiah said that even if it was a short duration war the domestic oil prices would shoot up by around nine per cent in 2003-04 as compared to the 5.5 per cent increase estimated for a year ago. "A nine per cent increase in the domestic oil prices has been projected in the event of Iraq war and the Rs 8,116 crore oil subsidy budgeted for 2003-04 was not adequate enough to bridge the gap," Muthiah said. However, the CII said in case of short duration war, the impact would be limited to disruption of only two million barrels per day of oil produced by Iraq with no other disruptions.

"In this case, we are factoring in only a moderate increase in oil prices," CII said, maintaing that the impact would depend on the extent of disruption created by the war. The CII also raised concern over the safety of about 3.8 million Indians working in Gulf. "Irrespective of short or long war, software exports from India may be hit as the recovery of US economy could be delayed." The FICCI president said: "The budgeted oil subsidy of Rs 8,116 crore in 2003-04 is inadequate to fully provide for the increase in the oil prices and a hike of nine per cent in domestic oil pricess is needed to cover the shortfall. A short war ending in a few days might result in moderate increase in oil prices, he said.
In case of long war, he feared a push up in the average oil prices to around 40 dollars a barrel, thus making a "major negative impact on the Indian economy, especially industry."

CII also said "a prolonged war may dampen the growth prospects... basically nipping the growth in the manufacturing sector and reducing GDP growth by somthing like 0.75 per cent." In case of worst war scenarios, CII said Persian Gulf would be effectively shut down apart from blocked sea lanes which will hit high energy consuming nations including India. "Higher oil prices will see a sharp increase in forward premiums on the dollar currency and exchange rate could head southward and rapidly hit Rs 50 a dollar," CII said adding "if it comes close to Rs 50 and is speculation driven, RBI may be forced to intervene".